The Long Game: Examining the Relationship between Recruit Characteristics and Early Attrition
Article Information
Citation
Phiri, L., & Alan, K. (2026). The long game: Examining the relationship between recruit characteristics and early attrition. NIJ LEADS Special Issue, 102-122.
Keywords
Recruit selection, attrition, police recruitment, predictive validity, psychological assessment, academy training
Research Summary
Police agencies across the United States are grappling with a recruitment and retention crisis, yet very little research has examined how retention success can be identified as early as the recruit level. Drawing on 20 years of administrative data from one mid-sized midwestern agency, this study explores the relationships among recruit characteristics, including professional history and demographics, and the likelihood of early attrition.
The study found that a recruit’s age, educational level, and background all play a role in their likelihood of success in the profession. Departmental culture also emerged as an important factor. Using a “break-even point” framework (the point at which an officer’s contributions offset recruitment and training costs), the authors introduce a novel lens for evaluating recruitment effectiveness.
These findings suggest that departments should focus on creating inclusive environments that better support recruits who are at risk of early attrition. The article provides practical guidance for agencies seeking to make smarter, data-informed hiring decisions that improve long-term retention outcomes.
Companion Video
Understanding Recruit Attrition and Selection
Dr. Phiri and Lt. Alan present longitudinal research findings on recruit characteristics and early career attrition patterns.